ANALYZING LASSA FEVER EPIDEMICSTHROUGH THE SEIR MODEL

Abstract

Lassa fever is a severe viral illness with an incubation period
of 6 to 21 days. Notably, about 80% of those infected show no symptoms, complicating the early detection control of the disease. To explore the transmission dynamics of Lassa fever, a mathematical model was developed that examines the impact of isolating and treating both symptomatic and asymptomatic individuals. This model aims to enhance management strategies and evaluate the feasibility of eradicating the disease. The analysis confirmed that the model’s solutions remain positive and
bounded, validating its reliability. Furthermore, an equilibrium analysis identified disease-free and endemic equilibrium points, offering key insights into whether the disease can be controlled or will persist in the population. A critical finding was determining the basic reproduction number, R0, which indicates whether the disease can be eliminated or will continue to spread. If R0 < 1, elimination is possible, but if R0 > 1, the disease remains endemic. These findings provide valuable guidance for designing targeted public health interventions to mitigate the disease’s spread and
reduce its impact.